Smarter people than us simulate the success rate of the new spell.
Roll the Bones has become one of the most talked-about Hearthstone cards revealed ahead of Knights of the Frozen Throne.
This two Mana rogue spell draws a card from your deck and puts it into your hand. Nothing special about that, you might think, but if that card has a Deathrattle effect, then the spell is repeated over and over until you eventually pull a card that doesn’t have this extra effect.
On paper this sounds like a pretty broken concept, as Deathrattle is most certainly a theme in the Frozen Throne card set, and the Rogue has historically done quite well with tempo-focused decks that lean on the Deathrattle mechanic.
Keen to find out just how powerful this card might be, an enterprising Redditor has decided to run a simulation of just how many cards you were likely to draw based on the number of Deathrattle cards in your deck. The results are quite surprising.
To draw – on average – two extra cards as a result of playing Roll the Bones, you’d need at least 15 Deathrattle cards in your deck. Things improve from there, but to draw even three cards you’d need to have around 20 Deathrattle cards left in your deck-pile.
Game variance plays a huge part here, of course, and there’ll always be negative and positive outliers. You also have to take into consideration how many of the Deathrattle minions that feature in your deck made it into your hand during the Mulligan phase.
From a theoretical perspective, however, it seems as though this card might not be quite as broken as it first appears.
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We’ll have a clearer idea of how useful this card might be once the full set has been revealed. We’re just past the halfway point of the official unveiling right now, and you can view every card that’s been confirmed over at our Frozen Throne guide if you’d like to do some theorycrafting of your own.
What do you think of Roll the Bones? Do you think it’ll become a dominant part of the meta once the usual launch frenzy has ended, or will it end up as a bit of a gimmick card? Let us know what you think of this new card in the comments.